Subscription retention is the share of a signup cohort still subscribed after a given number of months. Across four subscription programs DTC Pages measured, covering 438,961 subscribers, 45% to 56% of a cohort was still active at month three, with an average of 51%. The number to watch is that month-three figure, along with the month when half your subscribers are gone. The churn rate on your dashboard is the one to stop comparing.
Your churn rate is the wrong number to compare#
Most subscription benchmarks start from churn rate. It's the number every dashboard shows first, and two versions of it look comparable across stores when they aren't.
The 30-day churn rate depends on how fast you grow. New subscribers cancel faster than older ones. A store adding a lot of subscribers has a base full of new people, so its churn rate reads high even when its subscribers behave like anyone else's. One program in our set reads 32.1% monthly churn on a 30-day window and 13.6% measured over 12 months. Compare it with another store's 30-day churn and you're mostly comparing growth.
The 12-month churn in some dashboards isn't a rate. It divides a full year of churned subscribers by today's active base. Once your base turns over more than once a year, it passes 100%. We've seen 148.5%, 165.4% and 480.8%. Read it as a turnover ratio.
Cohort retention avoids both problems. It follows a closed group of subscribers, so it doesn't move with your growth rate, and it can't pass 100%.
Churn rate is still worth tracking for your own program, week to week, as long as you read it next to your signup volume. It just isn't a benchmark: use it to spot changes, and use cohort retention to compare.
Subscription retention benchmarks at a glance#
If you only have 30 seconds, these are the numbers to compare against.
| Metric | Average | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Retention at month 1 | 77% | 68% to 86% |
| Retention at month 3 | 51% | 45% to 56% |
| Retention at month 6 | 35% | 24% to 45% |
| Half-life | 3.3 months | 2.4 to 4.5 months |
| Share of churn that is voluntary | 89% | 84% to 94% |
| Subscription AOV vs. one-time AOV | 15% lower | 6% to 24.5% lower, in 4 of 5 programs |
| Black Friday cohorts vs. the rest of the year, month 3 | 1.8 points better | better in 3 of 4 programs |
Averages are across programs, never across subscribers. Retention and half-life come from four programs with 438,961 subscribers; churn split and AOV from the programs where the platform reports them.
Which subscription metrics actually matter?#
Subscription dashboards show a lot of numbers. Four of them tell you whether the program works and where to look when it doesn't.
| Metric | What it tells you | If it's off, look at |
|---|---|---|
| Cohort retention at months 1, 3 and 6 | How many people who signed up in the same month are still subscribed | The renewal where your curve drops the most |
| Half-life | The month when half of a signup cohort is gone | Your billing interval and the first two renewals |
| Voluntary vs. passive churn | Whether people choose to leave or their payment fails | The product and offer if it's voluntary, payment recovery if it's passive |
| Subscription AOV vs. one-time AOV | What a subscription order is worth against a regular order | Your revenue forecast and your subscription discount |
Cohort retention is the main picture. It follows a closed group: everyone who subscribed in, say, March, and how many of them are still active each month after. New signups don't get mixed in, so it shows how your subscribers behave, not how fast you're growing.
Half-life turns that curve into one number. Find the two months where your cohort crosses 50%, and the half-life sits between them. It helps because single months can rank programs differently. In our data, one program was the best of four at month one and the worst of them by month four.
The other two tell you where to work. The voluntary split says whether the problem is the product and offer or the payments. The AOV comparison keeps your revenue forecast honest.
Why it's worth the effort: in one supplements program we manage, the average subscriber spent $506 over 12 months against $143 for the average customer who never subscribed, 3.5 times more, with 4.6 orders against 1.2. In the same program, 49% of a month's new subscribers didn't subscribe on their first order but on a later one, so working only on the subscription option for first-time buyers would have reached about half of them. Both numbers come from one program, so read them as an example, not a benchmark.
What is a good subscription retention rate?#
Compare your cohort retention against this range. It comes from four programs across three categories and three platforms.
| Month | Lowest | Average | Highest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | 68% | 77% | 86% |
| Month 3 | 45% | 51% | 56% |
| Month 6 | 24% | 35% | 45% |
By category, at month three:
| Category | Retention at month 3 |
|---|---|
| Supplements (two programs) | 55% and 56% |
| Pet | 47% |
| Superfoods | 45% |
The two supplements programs are run by different companies on different platforms and landed within a point of each other. That's the closest thing to a category benchmark we have. Pet and superfoods are one program each, so use them as a reference point, not a rule for the category.
For conversion rate, we tell stores to compare by average order value instead of industry (see our ecommerce conversion rate benchmarks). For subscriptions, we don't have enough programs yet to do the same, so category is the best cut we can offer.
For a market reference, Recharge publishes medians for its Health and Wellness vertical: 7.3% active and 0.5% passive monthly churn. They're monthly churn rates, so they move with growth like yours does: use them as context, not as a target.
One thing to check before you compare: how often you bill. The program with the best half-life in our set also bills least often, up to about every three months on its largest plan. A subscriber who isn't charged for three months has fewer moments to reconsider. Compare yourself with programs that bill on similar intervals.
The range isn't universal. A fifth program we measured sits at 14% at month three. If you're far below the band, the next section is where to start.
Where are you losing subscribers?#
The curve tells you whether retention is low. The drop from one month to the next tells you where to look, because a big drop at the first renewal and a big drop at a later one point to different fixes.
| Program | Month 0 to 1 | Month 1 to 2 | Month 2 to 3 | Month 3 to 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supplements A | 17 pts | 12 pts | 9 pts | 4 pts |
| Supplements B | 14 pts | 12 pts | 11 pts | 7 pts |
| Pet | 7 pts | 27 pts | 12 pts | 12 pts |
| Superfoods | 17 pts | 15 pts | 8 pts | 7 pts |
| Program below the band | 40 pts | 23 pts | 10 pts | 4 pts |
A big drop at the first renewal means many subscribers never take a second delivery. The program below the band loses 40 points at that step, and most of its gap with the others opens there. That's where we'd look first: what the first order delivers, and what happens between it and the first charge.
A big drop at one later renewal usually has a specific cause. The pet program loses only 7 points at the first renewal and then 27 at the second, and a drop at that renewal shows up in every cohort we have. The cause we traced was the amount of product per shipment against the billing interval. Each shipment carried about two months of product, starting with the first one, and monthly billing was one of the options. A subscriber on monthly billing piled up a month of unused product every cycle, so by the second renewal a full shipment sat unopened when the next charge came.
You can check this on your store in a few minutes. Divide the days of product in your first shipment by your billing interval in days. If the result is above one, subscribers receive product faster than they use it, and the ratio tells you which renewal to watch.
Losses spread evenly are the hardest to act on. One supplements program loses 14, 12 and 11 points in the first three steps, with no month that stands out. There, the work goes into the product, the offer and the cancellation experience as a whole.
A big first drop doesn't decide where you end up. The other supplements program loses 17 points at the first renewal, tied for the largest inside the band, and still has the best curve in the set.
Is your churn a payment problem?#
Probably not. Across four programs where the platform separates the two, 84% to 94% of churn is voluntary, 89% on average. Nine in ten people you lose went into their account and cancelled. The rest is passive churn: the card expired or the bank declined the charge, and the platform ended the subscription after its retries. Recharge's Health and Wellness medians point the same way, with 7.3% active monthly churn against 0.5% passive.
Dunning and card updaters are worth setting up, but they work on about one churn in ten. The other nine are about the product, the offer, the billing interval and what happens when someone tries to cancel. Check your own split before you invest in payment recovery.
Does subscription lower your average order value?#
Usually. In four of the five programs where we have both numbers, a subscription order is worth 6% to 24.5% less than a one-time order, 15% less on average. If your subscription orders are worth less, lower the AOV in any forecast that moves customers to subscription.
The exception is a program where about 98% of orders are subscriptions. There, subscription orders are worth 48.5% more, because the few one-time orders left are small add-ons, not another way to buy the main product.
Subscription's share of revenue doesn't tell you whether the program is healthy. Two programs in our set have 71% and 72% of revenue in subscriptions. One retains 47% at month three, the other 14%.
Do Black Friday subscribers churn faster?#
Not in our data. We compared November and December cohorts with the rest of the year. In three of four programs, the Black Friday cohort retained better at month three, and one did slightly worse. The average difference was +1.8 points. For three of the four it's a single season, so it doesn't prove those cohorts are better, only that they aren't reliably worse. If subscription is part of your BFCM offer, this data gives no reason to hold back.
How to benchmark your own subscription program#
Knowing the band is only useful if you compare your program the same way. Four steps:
1. Pull cohort retention for 12 months. Most subscription dashboards open on a 30-day view. Set a 12-month window and export retention by signup month. Check how your platform labels the signup month (Month 0 or 1st Month) before you compare.
2. Compare your month 3 and your half-life against the band. Month 3 between 45% and 56% and a half-life between 2.4 and 4.5 months put you inside the range we measured. Compare only with programs that bill on similar intervals.
3. Find your biggest drop. Subtract each month from the one before it. A big drop at the first renewal points to the first order and what happens before the first charge. A big drop at a later renewal is where we'd first check the amount of product per shipment against the billing interval, the cause we traced in one program: divide the days of product in a shipment by the days between charges.
4. Check your churn split and your AOV before you invest. Payment recovery only works on your passive share, which in our programs was about one churn in ten. And if subscription orders are worth less than one-time orders, lower the AOV in any forecast that moves customers to subscription.
How we collected this data#
Eight subscription programs DTC Pages has dashboard access to, on Recharge, Skio, Stay AI and Loop. Five had cohort curves clean enough to compare, covering 471,175 subscribers, and four of them form the band. Every figure uses the same 12-month window, September 2025 to September 2026, set by hand on each platform. Cohorts under 500 subscribers are left out, which removes one program's Black Friday cohort (317 subscribers, 5.6 points worse at month three). The one exception to the window is the Black Friday comparison, where one program also includes the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Averages are across programs, and no store is identified.
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Frequently Asked Questions#
What is a good subscription retention rate?#
Between 45% and 56% of a signup cohort was still subscribed at month three, 51% on average, across four DTC subscription programs DTC Pages measured (438,961 subscribers). At month six the range was 24% to 45%. Two supplements programs landed at 55% and 56%. The range isn't universal: a fifth program in the same set sat at 14% at month three.
What is subscription half-life?#
It's the month at which half of a signup cohort has cancelled. Find the two months where your cohort crosses 50% and interpolate between them. In four programs DTC Pages measured, half-life ran from 2.4 to 4.5 months, 3.3 on average. It follows a closed group, so it doesn't change with your growth rate. Compare it only with programs that bill on similar intervals.
What percentage of subscription churn is involuntary?#
Between 6% and 16%, 11% on average, across four programs DTC Pages measured where the platform separates the two. The other 89% are subscribers who cancelled on their own. Recharge's Health and Wellness medians point the same way: 7.3% active monthly churn against 0.5% passive. Payment recovery is worth setting up, but it addresses about one churn in ten.
Why is my subscription churn rate over 100%?#
Because it isn't a rate. Some dashboards divide a full year of churned subscribers by today's active base. Once your base turns over more than once a year, the result passes 100%. DTC Pages measured 148.5%, 165.4% and 480.8% in three programs. To compare your program with others, use cohort retention at month three or half-life instead.
Is subscription AOV lower than one-time AOV?#
Usually. In four of five programs DTC Pages measured, subscription orders were worth 6% to 24.5% less than one-time orders, 15% less on average. The exception was a program where about 98% of orders are subscriptions. There, the few one-time orders are small add-ons, and subscription AOV was 48.5% higher. If your subscription orders are worth less, lower the AOV in any forecast that moves customers to subscription.
Do Black Friday subscribers churn faster?#
Not in our data. Across four subscription programs DTC Pages measured, November and December signup cohorts retained better at month three than the rest of the year in three programs and slightly worse in one, 1.8 points better on average. For three of the four it's a single season, so it shows these cohorts aren't reliably worse, not that they're better.
What is a good subscription churn rate?#
There's no single good churn rate to compare against, because churn rate moves with how fast you grow: one program DTC Pages measured reads 32.1% monthly churn on a 30-day window and 13.6% over 12 months. If you need a market reference, Recharge publishes Health and Wellness medians of 7.3% active and 0.5% passive monthly churn, though like any monthly churn rate they move with growth. Compare cohort retention instead: in the four programs we measured, 45% to 56% of a signup cohort was still subscribed at month three.
How do you calculate subscription cohort retention?#
Take everyone who subscribed in the same month and count how many are still active one, two and three months later. Divide each count by the size of the starting group. Use a 12-month window, treat the signup month as month 0, and never mix new signups into an older cohort.
Next Steps#
If your month-three retention sits below the band, or you don't know which renewal is costing you subscribers, that's one of the first things we look at in a CRO audit. DTC Pages has run 1,379 A/B tests with a verdict since 2021, and 37.9% of them won. You can see how we run them on our A/B testing service page, or book a call and we'll go through your cohort report together.
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